If we all try hard, we can keep our curve from going exponential!

Today on March 28th, 2020, Florida’s Space Coast is just about 2 full weeks into our local coronavirus experience.  And you can see from the above chart, we are curving upwards fairly gently so far. 

By it’s nature, this virus tends to spread exponentially at first before it finally settles down and turns into an overall bell shaped curve.  But if we all work hard during this critical early window, we can flatten the bell curve and turn the initial exponential portion of the curve into a more gentle curve.  Or if we really kick butt, we can go even more extreme and force it into a simple linear rise! 

Miami is already exponential!

The below chart shows both Brevard County (blue) and Miami-Dade County (orange) on the same scale. 

You can hardly tell the Space Coast is rising at all because Miami-Dade has nearly a thousand cases right now and we only have about 20 or so. You can clearly see that after only two and a half weeks, Miami-Dade is now exponentially rising.

So we on the Space Coast need to be especially cautious right now over the next week or two. If we are all really good about following the guidelines and rules, we can keep our beloved Space Coast from going exponential!

So stay inside. And if you do leave the house, stay away from others. And stay away from stuff that others have touched, as much as you can. That’s the best way we can all help keep this thing from going exponential.

4/4/2020 Update

It’s been a week since I originally posted this, so we’re about 3 weeks into our coronavirus experience now here on Florida’s Space Coast. And it looks like our curve is still doing really good. It’s curving up a bit from last week, but it’s still quite flat! Especially when you compare our curve to the Miami-Dade curve. Nice work, everyone! Keep it up! The more we isolate and stay away from others, the flatter this curve will end up being!

Just a couple days ago, the entire state of Florida went under a stay-at-home order, but I feel like most everyone was already following those sorts of rules anyways, so I don’t expect to see a significant change in our curve from that.

Thanks!

Thanks for your interest!  If you want to share this post, please share the link directly to this post, rather than sharing the top level blog link which will change over time. Thanks!  Kurt.

All data was taken from the amazing Florida Today coronavirus tracking map by county which allows the user to slide back and forth in time, which is totally and completely awesome!